Who's Winning the PGA Championship? OUR TOP 50.

May 14, 2024

The second major of 2024 is officially here. The PGA Championship returns to Valhalla (Louisville, Kentucky) where Rory McIlroy won in 2014. Below we’ve ranked the Top 50 players most likely to win the Wanamaker Trophy this Sunday.

Rank

Player

Phil Mickelson (USA)

This could be one of his last chances to pickup another major title. It won’t be easy, but his distance off the tee will give him a fighting chance to compete if he is accurate enough. Finished 22^nd in Singapore last week. Won the 2021 PGA Championship.

Nick Taylor (Canada)

The four-time tour winner enters this week playing some good golf. He’s a shorter hitter off the tee, which doesn’t fare well at this golf course unless you have a spectacular week with your irons. Finished Top-10 at the Zurich.

Patrick Reed (USA)

Has finished inside the top 30 in six consecutive events. Finished T-12 in The Masters and would love to show the PGA Tour players that he can still compete with them. Has finished top 20 in three of his past five major appearances.

Taylor Pendrith (Canada)

Playing phenomenal golf coming in with four consecutive Top-11 finishes. Won the Byron Nelson two weeks ago and should enter with a large amount of confidence.

Chris Kirk (USA)

Has played very well in the past two PGA Championships and is coming off a T-16 at The Masters and T-10 at Harbor Town.

Byeong Hun An (Republic of Korea)

Finished third in a loaded field last week in Charlotte and finished fourth at the Byron Nelson the week prior. Coming in playing great golf after a Top-20 at the Masters.

Keegan Bradley (United States)

After a spectacular 2023 season, Keegan hasn’t had any luck yet this year. Shown some flashes in his past three events with a Top-25 at The Masters and Wells Fargo.

Ryan Fox (New Zealand)

Coming off a fourth place at the Myrtle Beach Classic last week and a fourth-place finish at the Zurich. Finished T-14 in the Dubai Invitational in January. He made the cut in all four major championships last year and did the same at the Masters this year. Great value this week in fantasy golf and worth a Top-10 flyer.

Keith Mitchell (USA)

One of the best drivers of the ball on tour, his talent with the driver will give him the chance to compete this week if everything breaks right. A bit inconsistent but possesses the talent to win every week. Worth a longshot Top-10 bet.

Akshay Bhatia (USA)

Picked up his second career win at the Valero Texas Open last month before finishing T-35 in his Masters debut. He has the firepower to hang around.

Tom Kim (Korea)

Has faired better in Majors so far in his career than regular events. Finished in the top 30 in his last three major appearances.

Min Woo Lee (Australia)

Lee finished T-22 at The Masters and runner up at The Cognizant this spring, but outside of those weeks he hasn’t had much good fortune this year. Finished T-18 at last year’s PGA Championship.

Si Woo Kim (Korea)

Si Woo has quietly played very solid golf this season – his worst finish in the past three months is 30^that the Masters. Finished in the top 20 in each of the last three weeks coming in. Has struggled mightily in PGA Championships.

Russell Henley (United States)

Henley has finished Top-15 nine times sine last August. Finished 10^th at the Wells Fargo last week.

Rickie Fowler (United States)

Will one of the most likeable golfers on tour ever win his first major championship? It likely won’t be this week for Rickie. Has posted one Top-20 in a full-field event since the Tour Championship in August. Won in Detroit last July to earn his sixth career PGA Tour win and end a four-year winless drought.

Talor Gooch (USA)

A special exemption to the field by way of LIV Golf, Gooch has had a strong season so far finishing in the top 10 in four of his past six events. Has yet to fair well in major championships but is one of the best iron players in the world.

Tiger Woods (United States)

Will he be healthy enough to compete? He’s coming off a made cut at The Masters where he passed his buddy Fred Couples for the most consecutive made cuts in Masters history. He needs one more win to break the tie with Sam Snead for the most professional wins in golf history. The only problem is that recently he hasn’t been able to finish tournaments, completing just one full-field PGA Tour tournament since February 2023. This course doesn’t suit him well. His best chance to get major #16 will be at Augusta going forward.

Sungjae Im (Korea)

Played great golf last week at Quail Hollow, finishing T-4. Won the Woori Financial Group Championship in Korea last month.

Tony Finau (United States)

This course should favor long hitters, which means you can’t rule out Finau. He’s had a quiet past 12 months since last winning in April of 2023.

Brian Harman (United States)

One of the great stories of 2023, Brian Harman now tees it up as a major champion and Ryder Cup participant. Has struggled recently, missing the cut at the Masters, but bounced back with a T-12 at the RBC Heritage. He seems to always be lurking on the leaderboard when they play difficult courses.

Shane Lowry (Ireland)

Coming off a win at the Zurich Classic, I just don’t love the course for him this week. Struggled last week at a very similar golf course. He finished T-12 in last year’s PGA Championship but hasn’t threatened in a major since then.

Sahith Theegala (United States)

Sahith has five Top-10 finishes worldwide in 2024, including runner-up at the RBC in Hilton Head and Maui in January. Finished T-6 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T-9 in The Players Championship in consecutive weeks in March. Last September, he earned an emotional first career PGA Tour win in front of more than 30 family and friends in Napa, Calif.

Sam Burns (United States)

Recorded a T-13 at Wells Fargo last week which should bode well at a similar Valhalla course. Tallied top-10 finishes at La Quinta, Pebble Beach, Phoenix and Riviera to start 2024. He made his debut as a member of the United States Ryder Cup team last year in Italy. It could be time for a breakthrough for one of the game’s most clutch putters.

Corey Conners (Canada)

Starting to play some really good golf of late. He’s in solid form coming in, posting seven Top-30s in his past nine starts. Back-to-back Top-15s entering this week. Finished T-12 at last year’s PGA.

Tyrrell Hatton (England)

Hatton no-doubt has the talent to win a major championship and has finished T-21 or better in 12 of his past 13 events. Made the switch to LIV Golf this season and posted a T-5 finish in Singapore last week. The Mad-Hatter finished ninth at this year’s Masters and represented Europe in his third Ryder Cup in 2023. His worldwide wins include both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and DP World Tour's flagship event in 2020 as well as consecutive DP World Tour wins in St Andrews in 2016 and 2017.

Denny McCarthy (United States)

McCarthy is on the short-list with the likes of Xander Schauffele and Cameron Smith as the best putters on the planet. McCarthy ranks third on tour in Strokes gained putting. Finished sixth last week on a very similar golf course in Charlotte. Last season he finished runner-up in the Memorial Tournament and added a T-20 in the U.S. Open at The Los Angeles Country Club. Recorded his first Top-10 in major in the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Massachusetts after closing 68-68 to finish T-7.

Patrick Cantlay (United States)

He’s been very solid in his past seven majors, finishing T-22 or better in six of them. Recorded Top-12 finishes at Maui, Pebble Beach and Riviera to start 2024. In 2023, he recorded seven Top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour, finished inside the Top-15 in three of the four majors. Finished in the top 30 in his last four events.

Joaquin Niemann (Chile)

A special exemption into this year’s field, Niemann has been dominant internationally in the LIV Golf events over the past five months. He has won three times since November and has four Top-7 finishes and one Top-25 finish. Played solid at Augusta with a T-22.

Jordan Spieth (United States)

One of the most unpredictable players on tour, both in-round and week-to-week, Spieth has been super inconsistent in a weird 2024 season that has featured a third-place finish at The Sentry and a T-6 at the WM Phoenix Open before being disqualified at Riviera for signing an incorrect scorecard after a strong first three rounds. He missed the cut at the Masters but seems to be finding some form following a Top-30 at Quail Hollow.

Sepp Straka (Austria)

The former Georgia Bulldog is playing fantastic golf, finishing in the Top-16 in five of his past six starts. Finished eighth at Quail Hollow last week, T-16 at the Masters, T-12 in Maui in January and T-16 in The Players Championship in March. In 2023, Straka followed a T-7 finish in the PGA Championship by finishing runner-up in The Open at Royal Liverpool. He was also a member of the winning European Ryder Cup team in Italy.

Cameron Smith (Australia)

Cam Smith represents one LIV Golf’s best chances to win a major this season outside of Koepka and Rahm. One of the best putters in the world, Smith enters after a 2^nd place finish at LIV Golf Singapore last week. Smith has finished Top-10 in five of the past nine majors counting his Open Championship victory in 2022.

Hideki Matsuyama (Japan)

Hideki has finished T-12 or better in four of his past five starts, including a win at Riviera in February, but hasn’t teed it up since the Masters. He hasn’t played a ton of golf this spring, but he has been spectacular when he does and hasn’t missed a cut since August 2023. Hasn’t had a Top-5 at the PGA Championship since 2017.

Dustin Johnson (United States)

The two-time major winner enters the field this week a little bit of an unknown. He’s played decent golf this spring but has just one Top-20 finish since he won the LIV Golf Las Vegas event in February. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Masters. Hasn’t finished inside the top 50 at the PGA Championship since he finished second in 2020 in San Francisco. This course should fit his game well.

Viktor Hovland (Norway)

Hovland is near the top of the list of the most talented players looking for their first major victory. He had a dominant finish to 2023, winning the BMW Championship and the PGA Tour Championship at East Lake before rattling off Top-5 finishes at the BMW PGA Championship and DP World Tour Championship overseas. However, he parted ways with short-game coach Joe Mayo --who helped Hovland transform from one of the games worst short-game players to one of the game’s best-- prior to the 2024 campaign. Hovland has struggled to get much going this spring, his best finish a T-19 at the Genesis Invitational. However, Hovland has shown up in the big events, finishing Top-20 in five of his past six major championships, so we still expect him to sniff the top of the leaderboard this week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (England)

A bit of an unusual spring for Fitzpatrick as he told reporters that he played all last season with a weight in his driver that was forgotten about until he arrived at the WM Phoenix Open this year. His team put weights in his irons and driver last year for some testing -and somehow- they forgot to take the weight out from his driver until he went to have his driver re-gripped early this year and found the weight. He’s been solid since getting back to his original driver, posting a Top-25 at the Masters, 11^th at the Zurich, 15^th at the Waste Management and a fifth-place finish at The Players Championship.

Will Zalatoris (United States)

One our dark horses this week that has the firepower to win at this track, Zalatoris has proven he can play with the game’s best at major championships. He’s had a rough go at things the last two years battling injury, but when he’s been healthy, he has been at the top of the major leaderboards. Arguably the best iron player in the game when he’s healthy, his ability to work the ball both ways and use elite distance control with his long irons, Valhalla could be a good match for his game. Zalatoris has finished T-9 or better in seven of his past 10 major appearances, including this year’s Masters. He has finished in the top eight in both of his PGA Championship appearances.

Tommy Fleetwood (England)

Fleetwood is somehow still looking for his first professional win the United States despite 10 professional wins overseas and countless weeks near the top of the leaderboard. Fleetwood has been very solid in major championships the past three seasons, finishing T-18 or better in seven of the nine events, including a T-3 with Max Homa at the Masters this season. He’s been knocking on the door repeatedly, and someone that flushes the irons the way he does is bound to have a hot week break through eventually. Coming off a T-13 at Quail Hollow last week.

Max Homa (United States)

A fan favorite, Homa has the talent to win any time he tees is up, but the six-time PGA Tour winner has struggled to get across the finish line at a major championship so far. He enters this week in good form, has six top-20 finishes worldwide in 2024, including T-8 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando in March and a superb T-3 at the Masters last month. Homa has fared better in majors in his last few attempts. He’ll look to ride the momentum into a breakthrough win this week.

Jason Day (Australia)

Had a fantastic February highlighted by a T-6 at The Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a ninth-place finish at Riviera but his strong play slowed until the RBC Heritage where he bounced back with a T-18. Played really well last weekend in Charlotte, finished tied-for-fourth. After starting 2023 with top 20s in each of his first seven worldwide starts, he won the AT&T Byron Nelson in Texas in May to earn his 13^th career PGA Tour win and end a five-year winless drought. Finished runner-up in The Open at Royal Liverpool in July and in August, qualified for the Tour Championship at East Lake for the first time since 2018. Has been brilliant in PGA Championships with seven Top-15 finished and nine Top-25s.

Ludvig Åberg (Sweden)

Åberg has been a machine in his first 12 months on the PGA Tour. He made his major debut at August last month and finished second to only Scottie Scheffler-- of course he did. He never looks like the spotlight is too bright, no matter how few rounds of PGA Tour golf he’s played. He reminds me of a dominant pitcher that always wants the ball in the last inning or a basketball player that wants to take the last shot with the game on the line. He won the European Masters and the RSM Classic during an incredible rookie campaign in 2023. He was so impressive he was selected as a captain’s pick for the 2023 Ryder Cup by Luke Donald. The only reason he isn’t higher in these rankings is because he’s been battling a knee injury that caused him to miss the Wells Fargo last week.

Wyndham Clark (United States)

Nobody outside of Scottie Scheffler started the season hotter than Wyndham Clark, but he has run into some trouble of late. He missed the cut at the Masters and finished T-47 at Quail last weekend. He is too talented to lay a dud in back-to-back majors, however. Clark won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and collected back-to-back runner-up finishes at The Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship. Both of his second place finishes this spring came to Scottie Scheffler. Clark somewhat took the golf world by storm last summer, picking up his first career win at the Wells Fargo before parlaying his momentum into his first career Major win at the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club. He made the Ryder Cup team for the first-time last fall and has played great golf this spring, so his confidence appears to be at an all-time high.

Justin Thomas (United States)

Every time he tees it up, he has the talent to win. Made somewhat of a shocking move announcing a split with renowned caddie Jim “Bones” Mackay” just eight days before the Masters earlier this year. Former caddie for Patrick Cantlay, Matt Minister, has taken over the bag for Thomas of late. A native of Louisville, this is a home game for Thomas, who has played excellent golf since last August. PGA Championships have been friendly to JT, taking home the crown at Quail Hollow in 2017 and Southern Hills in 2022. Thomas is coming off a Top-5 finish at the RBC Heritage and a T-21 last weekend in Charlotte.

Xander Schauffele (United States)

The X-man hasn’t found the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour since winning the Traveler’s in June of 2022, but he has been knocking on the door week-in and week-out this spring. The reigning Olympic gold medal winner enters The PGA Championship with 10 Top-10 finishes in his past 15 starts on tour and has finished Top-25 in 17 of his past 18 events with no wins to show for it. None so more heartbreaking than last week at Quail Hollow, when he held a two-shot lead over McIlroy headed to the eighth hole. Schauffele is probably slightly ahead of Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland and Max Homa as the most accomplished players yet to capture that Major title, but his time must be coming soon. He has an impressive 12 Top-10 finishes in Major Championships since 2017.

Collin Morikawa (United States)

After a blistering start to his major championship career, Morikawa has slowed significantly the past 18 months, but has seemed to regain his form since he showed up at Augusta this spring. Morikawa finished T-3 at the Masters and posted a ninth place finish at Hilton Head, 23^rd place at the Zurich and finished T-16 last week at Quail Hollow. Morikawa has finished T-26 or better in three of the last four PGA Championships. One of the best iron players in the world, he’s due to get back in the winner’s circle. He’s proven the ability to close down the stretch of a major.

Jon Rahm (Spain)

The fifth ranked golfer in the world, Rahm is quietly flying under the radar slightly following his move to LIV Golf and his modest performance at Augusta. Outside of his T-45 finish at Augusta, Rahm hasn’t finished outside of the Top-10 in any tournament since last August at East Lake—where he finished 18^th. He will no doubt come in looking for some redemption after his showing at the Masters. Expect him to make some noise this week. Only Scheffler, McIlroy, Koepka and Schauffele have better odds to win this week than Rahm (+1600).

Cameron Young (United States)

What looked to be a once meteoric rise to stardom has slowed a bit after a blazing hot start to his career. The power-hitting Young is on his third caddie in three years and struggled to find consistency in 2023 after a spectacular rookie season in 2022. One of the most talented players in the world, he’s still looking for that breakthrough win. He’s been very solid since the calendar turned to 2024 with five Top-10 finishes, including a T-9 at Augusta. He’s finished ninth or better in five of the past eight majors and finished T-3 at the 2022 PGA. Young’s distance of the tee should give him an advantage on this beast of a Par-71 course. Flying slightly under the radar, Youngs is close to breaking through, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it came this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (United States)

Enters the week in excellent form having finished with five Top-10s in his last seven starts. Finished T-4 in last year's PGA Championship at Oak Hill for his fourth Top-10 performance in a major in the past four years. He won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot by six strokes on a similar course to Valhalla, joining Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as winners of the U.S. Open, U.S. Amateur and NCAA Individual Championship. Has four Top-20s in his last six majors. This course seems to be a good fit for Bryson, as he’s thrived at courses that reward for distance. Look for him to be a factor on the back nine on Sunday.

Brooks Koepka (United States)

Koepka enters this week following a win at the LIV Golf Singapore event and a ninth place at LIV Golf Adelaide. Koepka held off Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler to win his fifth major and third PGA Championship last May at Oak Hill Country Club. Koepka had a modest 45^th place at Augusta last month, but he’s been a force in PGA Championships and US Opens when he’s been healthy. He’s made comments in recent years that he feels like he’s competing with Rory McIlroy to be the best golfer of their age bracket, so a Sunday battle between Koepka and McIlroy would be a blast to watch. Koepka has six Top-5 finishes at the PGA Championship since 2015 and three victories.

Scottie Scheffler (United States)

The World’s No. 1 ranked golfer since May 22, 2023, Scheffler enters this week as the betting favorite to pick up his second-straight major. At (+400) currently, Scheffler has the shortest odds to win a major since Tiger Woods closed as a +350 favorite at the Masters in 2013. He enters the week as hot as any player on tour, winning four of his past five starts. Any other week it would feel silly not to have Scheffler ranked No. 1, but no player has won their next major championship start following a Masters win since Jordan Spieth did so in 2015. No player has won back-to-back majors since Koepka won the PGA Championship and US Open in 2018. Scottie could have something to say about that, however, as he hasn’t shot over-par in any round since Aug. 26, 2023, in his third round of the Tour Championship at East Lake. The eight-time PGA Tour winner is currently the world’s best ball-striker by a wide margin, leading the PGA tour in Strokes Gained Total, SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach the Green. The biggest variable for Scheffler this week will be how much time he has had to prepare for the tournament following the birth of his first child over the weekend.

Rory McIlroy (N. Ireland)

It feels like there is a gap this week between the top three players and the rest of the field. All three favorites (McIlroy, Scheffler, Koepka) are playing great golf coming in, but it feels like the stars are aligning for Rory to win his first major in 10 years. McIlroy returns to a familiar course in Valhalla --the site of his last major victory in 2014-- following two consecutive victories (Zurich Classic; Wells Fargo Championship). McIlroy won the Dubai Desert Classic in January and partnered with Shane Lowry to win the PGA Tour’s lone team event in New Orleans before a massive win in Charlotte last weekend. The 34-year-old ranks fourth on tour in strokes gained off-the-tee (0.886), which sets up well for long course in Louisville. McIlroy’s season turned around when his putting started to improve dramatically. Prior to The Players Championship he ranked 129^th in strokes gained putting, but since Sawgrass McIlroy has ranked 25^thon tour. McIlroy has the second-shortest odds to win (+750), behind only Scottie Scheffler.

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